[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 10 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 11 10:30:35 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with
the largest event being a C5 flare peaking at 10/1922 UT. A CME
first observed in STEREO A imagery at 10/1816 UT does not appear
to be geoeffective. Region 2234 (N04E19) grew in area. Region
2209 (S16) which previously produced M-class flares is due to
return around 10 Dec. The solar wind speed declined further to
around 450 km/s. IMF Bz varied between +/-5 nT. Solar activity
is expected to be low to moderate for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22322112
Cocos Island 4 11221111
Darwin 8 22232113
Townsville 8 22332112
Learmonth 7 22232112
Alice Springs 7 22322112
Norfolk Island 5 22221012
Culgoora 7 22322112
Gingin 7 32222122
Camden 8 22332112
Canberra 5 12322002
Hobart 9 23332112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 22242001
Casey 28 46632122
Mawson 18 53432332
Davis 19 43443242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 11 4222 2133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 6 Quiet
12 Dec 6 Quiet
13 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Unsettled periods were observed in the Australian region
in the first half of the UT day, with quiet conditions subsequently.
Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet on 11-12 Dec. A predicted
rise in the solar wind speed late on 12-Dec is likely to result
in unsettled conditions into 13-Dec, with active periods possible
in the south.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
13 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: High latitude disturbances likely on 13-Dec. Small chance
of short-wave fadeouts for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec 105 Near predicted monthly values
12 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly averages across the
Australian region, with daytime enhancements at Cocos Island.
Some periods of sporadic E were observed. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly averages to slightly enhanced on 11-12
Dec, with depressions possible on 13-Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 541 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 144000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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