[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 09 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 10 10:30:36 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 155/109 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
eleven C-class flares from region 2230 (S15E23), the largest
being a C8 at 09/1024 UT. This region grew strongly overnight.
Region 2209 (S16), which previously produced M-class flares,
is due to return around 10-Dec. The solar wind speed declined
gradually from around 700 km/s to around 500 km/s. The IMF Bz
component varied from -5 to +4 nT. Solar activity is expected
to be low to moderate for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 32233233
Cocos Island 7 21233121
Darwin 10 31233223
Townsville 12 32233233
Learmonth 11 32233223
Alice Springs 9 21233223
Norfolk Island 8 31223122
Culgoora 10 32223133
Gingin 12 31243232
Camden 10 32223133
Canberra 10 32223133
Hobart 13 32333233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Dec :
Macquarie Island 20 32355322
Casey 21 44443243
Mawson 36 54433372
Davis 29 53443362
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin 73 (Active)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gingin 78 (Active)
Canberra 92 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 4222 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Dec 5 Quiet
12 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over
the Australian region during the last 24 hours, with brief storm
periods in the Antarctic. Some unsettled periods are expected
over the Australian region on 10-Dec, returning to mostly quiet
conditions on 11-Dec. More unsettled conditions are likely on
12-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: High latitude disturbances likely on 10-Dec. Small chance
of short-wave fadeouts for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec 70 Near to 15% below predicted monthly values
11 Dec 70 Near to 15% below predicted monthly values
12 Dec 70 Near to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate daytime MUF depressions were observed in the
Australian region on 9-Dec, enhancements at Niue Island, with
other areas near monthly predicted values. MUFs are expected
to be near or slightly below monthly predicted values for the
next 3 days. Occasional periods of disturbance are possible in
Antarctic regions on 10-Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 668 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 256000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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