[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 07 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 8 10:30:31 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was low with only a few minor C-class
flares observed over the UT day. Solar wind speed remains elevated
and was steady at around 700 km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz
component fluctuated +/-5nT with sustained periods of negative
Bz 00-02, 11-13 and 14-16UT. Solar wind proton flux remains elevated
but has been declining slightly since the mid-part of the UT
day. The present coronal hole wind stream is expected to persist
days one and two of the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 15 32334333
Cocos Island 12 32233332
Darwin 15 32334333
Townsville 17 32334343
Learmonth 19 32335433
Alice Springs 15 32334333
Norfolk Island 13 32234332
Culgoora 17 32334343
Gingin 21 42335343
Camden 41 5--55-53
Canberra 15 32334333
Launceston - --------
Hobart 20 33335433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
Macquarie Island 31 33256543
Casey 48 56744434
Mawson 58 54555764
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Darwin 78 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 109 (Major storm)
Canberra 77 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 2232 1244
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
09 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 7 December
and is current for 7-9 Dec. The low to mid latitude regional
geomagnetic field was Unsettled with Active periods observed
12 to 18 UT at most stations. At high latitudes conditions were
Active with localised Minor to Major Storm intervals. Elevated
geomagnetic activity observed on Dec 07 is due to persistence
and intensification of the present coronal hole wind stream.
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated days one
and two of the forecast period, declining day three. Expect mostly
Unsettled conditions at low to mid latitudes with occasional
Active intervals day one, and increasing Quiet periods day two.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: High latitude disturbances possible mainly days one
and two due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to moderately depressed.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with extended periods of disturbance.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
09 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values
10 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Widespread moderate depressions observed Aus region
on Dec 07. N Aus regions recovering after local dawn today. S
Aus/Antarctic regions remain moderately depressed. Lower HF frequency
bands may be more successful Aus region today. Periods of localised
disturbance observed Antarctic region. Expect occasional periods
of disturbance S Aus/Antarctic regions next two days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list