[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 01 Dec 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 2 10:30:32 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.8    0642UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 168/122


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Dec             03 Dec             04 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            160/114

COMMENT: An isolated M1.8 level flare of moderate duration occurred 
in Active Region 2222 (S20E06) at 0641UT. No associated radio 
sweep activity was observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph. 
No CME event could be observed in LASCO imagery. There are eight 
numbered regions on the visible solar disk and most appear stable. 
Several regions have the potential for further isolated C- to 
M-class flare activity. Solar wind speed was steady at 400 km/s 
until about 15UT after which it increased to 600 km/s at the 
time of report issue. Since 15UT the IMF Bz component has trended 
moderately negative to -10nT. The elevated solar wind parameters 
indicate onset of an anticipated coronal hole wind stream which 
is expected to persist for 1-2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22222234
      Cocos Island         8   22222223
      Darwin              10   22222234
      Townsville          11   23222234
      Learmonth           10   32222233
      Alice Springs        9   22222224
      Norfolk Island       8   22222223
      Culgoora            10   22222234
      Gingin               9   22222233
      Camden              11   22322234
      Canberra            11   22322234
      Launceston           -   --------
      Hobart              12   23322234    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     9   22213124
      Casey               35   46633344
      Mawson              21   34423335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec : 
      Darwin              72   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1111 1232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Dec    12    Unsettled
03 Dec    12    Unsettled
04 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet at low 
to mid latitudes with Unsettled intervals at some stations. Unsettled 
to Active conditions were observed at high latitudes. With the 
onset of an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream during 
the second half of the UT day Dec 01, sustained negative IMF 
Bz component has resulted in Unsettled to Active geomagnetic 
conditions throughout the region. Expect periods of moderately 
elevated geomagnetic activity next two days, declining on day 
three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Dec   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Briefly depressed 10% 09-13UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with variable 
      enhancements/depressions to 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      113
Dec      87
Jan      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Dec   100    Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec   100    Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable localised enhancements/depressions observed 
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Generally slightly enhanced conditions 
observed S Aus/Antarctic regions. Elevated geomagnetic activity 
next two to three days may result in periods of disturbance S 
Aus/Antarctic regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    8.8 p/cc  Temp:    95500 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list