[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 30 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 1 10:30:29 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 177/131


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Dec             02 Dec             03 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            180/133

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
C-class flares from regions 2216 (S13W66), 2221 (N04E17) and 
2222 (S21E18). The largest event was a C2 from region 2221 peaking 
at 30/1719 UT. The solar wind speed varied between 350 and 450 
km/s. The total IMF declined to around 9 nT, while the Bz component 
varied between -8 and +10 nT. Solar activity is expected to be 
low for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22221232
      Cocos Island         5   12121221
      Darwin               8   22222223
      Townsville           8   22222232
      Learmonth            9   22222323
      Alice Springs        6   22221222
      Norfolk Island       6   12121232
      Culgoora             7   12221232
      Gingin               9   22221333
      Camden               7   12221232
      Canberra             7   12221232
      Launceston          10   23221333
      Hobart              10   22241223    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     5   12111222
      Casey               35   46653323
      Mawson              18   34332344

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov : 
      Darwin              69   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              3   0010 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Dec    12    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Dec    12    Unsettled
03 Dec     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region over 
the last 24 hours were mostly quiet, with a brief unsettled period 
18-21 UT. Conditions were at unsettled to storm levels in the 
Antarctic. A predicted rise in the solar wind speed is likely 
to cause unsettled periods on 1-2 Dec, with mostly quiet conditions 
returning on 3-Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Nov   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Dec   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
02 Dec   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
03 Dec   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to slightly 
enhanced across the Australian region over the last 24 hours. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to slightly 
enhanced over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 382 km/sec  Density:   11.5 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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