[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 30 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 1 10:30:29 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 177/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from regions 2216 (S13W66), 2221 (N04E17) and
2222 (S21E18). The largest event was a C2 from region 2221 peaking
at 30/1719 UT. The solar wind speed varied between 350 and 450
km/s. The total IMF declined to around 9 nT, while the Bz component
varied between -8 and +10 nT. Solar activity is expected to be
low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 22221232
Cocos Island 5 12121221
Darwin 8 22222223
Townsville 8 22222232
Learmonth 9 22222323
Alice Springs 6 22221222
Norfolk Island 6 12121232
Culgoora 7 12221232
Gingin 9 22221333
Camden 7 12221232
Canberra 7 12221232
Launceston 10 23221333
Hobart 10 22241223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 12111222
Casey 35 46653323
Mawson 18 34332344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 69 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 0010 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 12 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Dec 12 Unsettled
03 Dec 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region over
the last 24 hours were mostly quiet, with a brief unsettled period
18-21 UT. Conditions were at unsettled to storm levels in the
Antarctic. A predicted rise in the solar wind speed is likely
to cause unsettled periods on 1-2 Dec, with mostly quiet conditions
returning on 3-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
02 Dec 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
03 Dec 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to slightly
enhanced across the Australian region over the last 24 hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to slightly
enhanced over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 11.5 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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