[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 01 Aug 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 2 09:30:48 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.0    1449UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.5    1815UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 168/122


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Aug             03 Aug             04 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            155/109


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12121122
      Cocos Island         4   11121112
      Darwin               6   22221122
      Townsville           6   12222122
      Learmonth            7   22122123
      Alice Springs        5   12121122
      Norfolk Island       4   11121022
      Culgoora             5   12121122
      Gingin               6   21121123
      Camden               5   12121122
      Canberra             4   02121112
      Launceston           6   12131122
      Hobart               4   11121122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     2   00031001
      Casey                6   22222122
      Mawson              21   43122246

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug : 
      Darwin              19   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           13   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   1111 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Aug    12    Unsettled
03 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
04 Aug    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
possible at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Aug    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day.
     Depressed by 25% during local night.
  Niue Island Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day.
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      68
Aug      91
Sep      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Aug    65    Mildly depressed (<15%) to near predicted monthly 
                values
03 Aug    90    Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug    90    Near predicted monthly values


-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 312 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    17900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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