[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 14 issued 2349 UT on 31 Jul 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 1 09:49:54 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.5    1115UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 156/110


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Aug             02 Aug             03 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with 
region 2130 (S07E43) being the source of the largest event with 
a M2.5 flare at 1114UT. Region 2130 also produced numerous C-class 
events throughout the UT day. There are currently 8 regions on 
the visible disk with region 2127 (S08E22) declining in area 
over the last 24 hours while region 2121 (N09W54) exhibited renewed 
growth. Solar wind speed remained steady between 300km/s-340km/s. 
The IMF Bz component ranged between +/-3nT for the majority of 
the UT day with some sustained southward periods in the latter 
half of the UT day. Solar wind speed has the potential to increase 
over the next 24-48 hours due to a possible glancing blow CME 
from the 30Aug erupting filament. A small equatorial positioned 
coronal hole moves into geoeffective position in the next 12hrs, 
potentially influencing the solar wind stream late in the UT 
day on the 03Aug. Solar activity for the next 3 days is expected 
to be Low to Moderate with the chance of further M-class events.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01101111
      Cocos Island         2   11110110
      Darwin               4   12111112
      Townsville           3   11101112
      Learmonth            4   12210211
      Alice Springs        2   02100111
      Norfolk Island       1   11000001
      Culgoora             2   01101111
      Gingin               2   01100122
      Camden               3   01101113
      Canberra             1   01100100
      Launceston           3   01211211
      Hobart               2   01101111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                6   13301112
      Mawson              12   32210135

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              4   2100 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Aug     4    Quiet
02 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet 
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible isolated 
Active periods on 02Aug-03Aug from a glancing blow CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Jul    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      65
Jul      92
Aug      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS and Southern 
AUS/NZ regions during local day and dusk. Mostly normal ionospheric 
support for Equatorial and Antarctic regions. Occasional MUF 
depressions possible for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern 
AUS/NZ regions over the next 24 hrs with mostly near predicted 
monthly MUF values expected. Possible increase in geomagnetic 
activity for 02Aug-03Aug expected to result in variable HF conditions 
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric support 
for Antarctic regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 322 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    25100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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