[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 17 Sep 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 18 09:30:14 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Sep             19 Sep             20 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: AR 1841 is located near the centre of the disk and three 
new sunspot regions have appeared on the disk. Two of these are 
located on the eastern limb. Solar activity has been very low, 
with the X-ray background flux remaining near the B2 level. The 
strongest X-ray flare was a B6.8 event at 21:18 UT on 17 September. 
Solar activity is expected to remain very low during the next 
24 hours. The solar wind speed remained in the range 350 to 400 
km/s and Bz fluctuated between -5 nT and +5 nT during 17 September. 
The solar wind speed is still expected to start increasing due 
to the arrival of a high speed stream from the coronal hole which 
is rotating toward the western limb. The enhancement is presently 
not expected to be especially strong. A larger coronal hole is 
located in the Northern Hemisphere and is approaching the solar 
central meridian.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22202232
      Cocos Island         5   12201131
      Darwin               7   22202232
      Townsville           7   22202232
      Learmonth            6   22202231
      Alice Springs        6   12202232
      Norfolk Island       5   21201131
      Culgoora             7   22202232
      Gingin               5   22202121
      Camden               7   22202232
      Canberra             6   22202132
      Hobart               5   12202221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     4   11302120
      Casey               12   34421222
      Mawson              17   34322315
      Davis               12   33423212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2021 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Sep    12    Unsettled
19 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Sep     6    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 17 September 
and is current for 17-18 Sep. Australian region geomagnetic activity 
was quiet to unsettled during 16 September. The solar wind speed 
may still increase today due to the arrival of a high speed solar 
wind stream. However, at this stage, only minor geomagnetic activity 
is expected during the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Sep    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-50% during 06-14 UT.
      Depressed by up to 15% at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed throughout most of the day.
      Depressed by 15-30% during 00-07 UT, 
      50% during 11-12 UT, and 15-30% during 13-17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressions of 5-15% throughout the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      73
Sep      75
Oct      73

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep    75    Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Except for a major day time enhancement at the Cocos 
Island Region, HF propagation conditions were were generally 
depressed at low latitude regions. Conditions were close to normal 
at mid latitude locations and are expected to remain close to 
normal during the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    34200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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