[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 15 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 16 09:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: One spot region on the visible disc. Two, weak CMEs
and the 14 Sep filament disappearance are not expected to be
geo-effective. ACE data show the solar wind speed declining from
~~460 to ~360 km/s and a north-south IMF range of +4 to -3 nT.
A small, recurrent coronal hole is expected to become geo-effective
17 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 0 10000001
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11000002
Townsville 1 11000011
Learmonth 1 11100001
Alice Springs 1 10000002
Norfolk Island 0 10000000
Culgoora 3 --00003-
Gingin 1 10000002
Camden 1 10000011
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 0 10000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 33310012
Mawson 5 21100024
Davis 3 22101012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2231 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 7 Quiet to unsettled
17 Sep 12 Quiet to unsettled. Chance of an isolated active
period.
18 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: A recurrent coronal is expected to increase activity
17 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 25-40% 08-13 UT. Depressed 20-25% 20-23
UT. Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 35-40% 12-17 UT. Near predicted monthly
values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15-30% 06-08, 13-21, 23 UT at Darwin and
04-06, 14-17, 23 UT at Townsville. Near predicted
monthly values at other times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed. Night
spread F at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions to 20% possible at times at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 135000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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