[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 13 Sep 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 14 09:30:13 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Sep             15 Sep             16 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Two sunspot regions on the visible disc. Two CMEs observed 
in LASCO and STEREO images, neither is expected to be geo-effective. 
The first was associated with a filament lift-off in the south-east 
quadrant around 0059 UT, seen in SDO/GONG images. The other appears 
to have originated from behind the east limb. ACE data show the 
solar wind speed was somewhat elevated, 420-600 km/s with the 
north-south IMF ranging between +/-7 nT. A recurrent coronal 
hole is now located at central meridian.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet to active

Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22212421
      Cocos Island         7   22221321
      Darwin               8   22221421
      Townsville           9   22222421
      Learmonth           10   22222431
      Alice Springs        9   22222421
      Norfolk Island       5   -1112321
      Culgoora            10   2221243-
      Gingin               9   21212432
      Camden               8   22212421
      Canberra             8   22212421
      Hobart              10   22213431    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    12   22213521
      Casey               20   45422432
      Mawson              30   534-----
      Davis               22   44332354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   1121 2123     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Sep     8    Quiet to unsettled
15 Sep     6    Quiet
16 Sep     6    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 11 September 
and is current for 12-14 Sep.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Sep    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 20-35%
      15-19, 23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30-45% 00-10 UT. Depressed 20-35%
      13-17 UT. Mostly near predicted monthly values at
      other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced at Darwin
      25-35% 08-11, 15-16 UT, and 60-85% 12-14 UT. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Some night spread F
      at Hobart and Perth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      73
Sep      75
Oct      73

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Sep    65    Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep    65    Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressions to 20% possible at times at all latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 367 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    53300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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