[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 12 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 13 09:30:13 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Four regions on the visible disc. LASCO/STEREO images
show a CME late on 11 Sep which is not expected to be geo-effective.
ACE data show the solar wind undisturbed until ~1800 UT when
an impulse occurred. Since then, temperature and wind speed have
increased. Wind speed is now 400-480 km/s. The north-south IMF
component range was -6 to +10 nT over the reporting period. The
recurrent coronal hole is now in a geo-effective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11111012
Cocos Island 2 11110011
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 5 21211113
Learmonth 5 21211122
Alice Springs 3 11111012
Norfolk Island 2 10110021
Culgoora 4 11211112
Gingin 3 20101022
Camden 3 11111012
Canberra 3 11211012
Hobart 3 11211012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 01110012
Casey 7 23222122
Mawson 14 52311224
Davis 7 23321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2011 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 16 Unsettled to Active
14 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 11 September
and is current for 12-14 Sep. A recurrent coronal hole is likely
to cause an increase activity 13 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 15-35% 06-14 UT. Depressed 25-35% 19-23
UT. Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 20-35% 00, 01, 13-20 UT. Depressed to 15%
02-08 UT. Near predicted monthly values otherwise.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Occasional depressions to 25% 15-21 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Spread F at Hobart and Perth for about last 8 hours
of darkness.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions to 20% possible at times at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 66700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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