[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 08 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 9 09:30:35 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next
3 days. The solar wind speed was steady between around 350 and
400 km/s. The IMF Bz component varied between -6 nT to +3 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 23201101
Cocos Island 4 23211100
Darwin 4 23201101
Townsville 5 23211111
Learmonth 4 23211100
Alice Springs 4 23201101
Norfolk Island 2 22101010
Culgoora 5 23211111
Gingin 3 22201100
Camden 5 23211110
Canberra 3 23101100
Hobart 2 22000002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 12011000
Casey 10 44321110
Mawson 10 34202231
Davis 11 3332223-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1110 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 5 Quiet
10 Sep 5 Quiet
11 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet over the last 24 hours, with unsettled to active periods
in Antarctica. Mostly quiet conditions are expected across the
Australian region for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly depressed daytime MUFs were observed in the northern
Australian region, with moderate nighttime depressions in the
Cocus Island region. Southern Australian MUFs were mostly near
predicted monthly values to slightly depressed over the last
24 hours. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values
with possible mild depressions for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 48800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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