[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 07 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 8 09:30:33 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next
3 days. The solar wind speed was steady between around 350 and
400 km/s. The IMF Bz component varied between +/- 4nT, with a
positive bias for most of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 02010000
Darwin 2 12100002
Townsville 3 11210012
Learmonth 1 11100001
Alice Springs 1 01100001
Norfolk Island 1 11100001
Culgoora 2 11110011
Gingin 1 11100000
Camden 2 11110011
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 1 11100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 23310001
Mawson 8 33311103
Davis 5 23312000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1101 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 5 Quiet
09 Sep 5 Quiet
10 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet over the last 24 hours, with unsettled periods in Antarctica.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected across the Australian region
for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly depressed nighttime MUFs were observed in the
northern Australian and Niue Island regions, with moderate daytime
enhancements in the Cocus Island region. Southern Australian
MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over the last
24 hours. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values
with possible mild depressions for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.9E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 70100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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