[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 31 Aug 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 1 09:30:16 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Sep             02 Sep             03 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             112/63

COMMENT: Solar activity has been at Low levels with a single 
C2 flare from region 1836 (N11E19) at around 1730UT. No Earth 
directed CMEs were observed. Solar wind speeds remain mildly 
elevated at 450 km/s under the influence of a coronal hole high 
speed stream. The IMF Bt has fallen to around 5nT. Impact from 
the edge of the CME observed early on the 30th of August is expected 
on day 1. Flare activity is expected to remain at Low levels 
with some small chance of M class flares over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   32222101
      Cocos Island         6   32222101
      Darwin               9   32332112
      Townsville           8   23322112
      Learmonth            5   32222100
      Alice Springs        6   32222101
      Norfolk Island       4   22221101
      Culgoora             6   22322102
      Gingin               8   42222111
      Camden               6   22322101
      Canberra             4   22221001
      Hobart               7   32322101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    19   33545100
      Casey               13   44422111
      Mawson              29   63332326
      Davis               17   43443231

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug : 
      Darwin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1012 2224     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Sep    25    Active
02 Sep    12    Unsettled
03 Sep     7    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 31 August and 
is current for 1-2 Sep. Magnetic conditions are currently Quiet 
to Unsettle due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream. A CME 
impact is expected on day 1, bringing Active conditions on arrival 
followed by Unsettled conditions into day 2.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Aug    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      70
Aug      72
Sep      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep    60    Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days. Some mildly depressed conditions may be 
experienced in southern regions on the 1st and 2nd of September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 381 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    64300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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