[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 13 issued 2352 UT on 28 Oct 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 29 10:52:06 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.0 0203UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
M5.1 0441UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 1155UT possible lower European
M2.8 1406UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.7 1501UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M4.4 1516UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.5 2057UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at High levels during 28 October,
with an X1-class flare from region 1875 and M-class flare activity
from regions 1882 and 1875. Considerable CME activity has been
observed in association with these flares however these are predominantly
directed away from the Earth and only glancing blows are expected.
The most recent CME appears more earthward directed and further
analysis is required to model the potential impact. Further M-class
flare activity is expected with the possibility of X-class flares.
Solar wind speeds have are predominantly between 250-350 km/s
and are expected to remain relatively low for the next couple
of days pending further CME analysis.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 22110011
Cocos Island 1 12100000
Darwin 3 22110012
Townsville 4 23110011
Learmonth 2 22100001
Alice Springs 4 23210001
Culgoora 3 22110011
Camden 4 32110011
Canberra 2 22100000
Launceston 4 23210011
Hobart 4 23210000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 12100000
Casey 8 34320011
Mawson 3 32110000
Davis 4 23210000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
31 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 28 October
and is current for 28-29 Oct. Recently observed CME activity
appears predominantly directed away from the Earth and is not
expected to be geoeffective, pending further analysis.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days with a chance of SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Oct 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Oct 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are still enhanced due to high levels
of ionising EUV flux from multiple sunspot regions. Short wave
fadeouts possible next two days with a reasonable chance of isolated
M and X flares from solar active regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 277 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 18800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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