[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 13 issued 2344 UT on 27 Oct 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 28 10:44:38 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.5    1248UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 167/121


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Oct             29 Oct             30 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            155/109            150/105

COMMENT: Solar flare activity declined during the previous 24 
hours but still at Moderate levels. The largest flare of the 
period was M3.5 flare at 1248UT from new region 1884(S11E73)(no 
associated Type II sweep).The Highest activity has shifted from 
regions 1882(S08E47) and 1875(N07W51). The aforementioned regions 
remain large (300mil and 660 mil in size) and beta-gamma-delta 
magnetic class, but stable; M-class flares possible from either 
region and a chance of an isolated X-class flare for the next 
3 days. All other regions are either stable or declining. ACE 
data showed a weak increase in the solar wind parameters during 
the late hours of 26 Oct. This was most likely the effect of 
weak CMEs from October 22. ACE data show the solar wind speed 
over the reporting period below 320km/s with the north-south 
IMF +4/-2 nT. LASCO C2 and STEREO observed several CMEs on October 
27, may impact Earth late 28Oct, along with the CME from the 
25 October. EPAM ions (often a precursor to geomagnetic activity) 
remain increased over the UT day. Expect an increase in solar 
wind speed parameters on 28-29 October due to CME combined effects 
mainly from October 25.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11211011
      Cocos Island         2   11210010
      Darwin               3   11211011
      Townsville           4   11221111
      Learmonth            4   11221111
      Alice Springs        3   11211011
      Culgoora             3   11211011
      Camden               3   11211011
      Canberra             1   00210000
      Launceston           3   12211011
      Hobart               3   11211011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
      Casey                7   33321011
      Mawson               5   11212031

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              1   1000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Oct    25    Active
29 Oct    20    Active
30 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet for the Australian 
region. Active conditions with isolated minor storm intervals 
are expected next 12- 24 hours due to the expected merged arrival 
of CMEs mainly from 25 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days with a chance of SWFs. Higher latitudes may experience 
some degradations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Oct   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Darwin enhanced by 50% 10-16UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      68
Oct      72
Nov      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Oct    90    Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct    90    Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 25 
October and is current for 26-28 Oct. HF conditions are still 
enhanced due to high levels of ionising EUV flux from multiple 
sunspot regions. Expected geomagnetic activity 28-29 Oct may 
reduce the maximum useable frequency from the currently enhanced 
levels. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values with 
a chance of depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions 28-29 
Oct. Short wave fadeouts possible next two days with a reasonable 
chance of isolated M and X flares from solar active regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 288 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    12300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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