[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 13 issued 2341 UT on 22 Oct 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 23 10:41:42 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0022UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    1522UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M4.2    2120UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 146/100


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Oct             24 Oct             25 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Three M-class flares and numerous C class flares today 
with the most significant activity an M4.2 X-ray event at 21224UT. 
Region 1875(N07E04) produced all the flares. This region has 
grown rapidly in area magnetic complexity and has now become 
a beta-gamma-delta magnetic class. Further M-class flares are 
likely and an X-class flare is possible from this region. Other 
regions currently on disk remain relatively unchanged. Associated 
with the M4 flare was a Type II radio sweep. The relevant period 
of imagery from SOHO LASCO is not yet available. Further analysis 
will be given in tomorrow's report when imagery should be available. 
A Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF) occurred around 0130UT. SOHO 
LASCO images showed the associated CME expanding toward the north 
starting at about 0430UT, however some part of the ejected plasma 
cloud is expected to strike the Earth with an estimated arrival 
on 26 October. The solar wind speed was steady ~290Km/s,rose 
slightly to 340km/s ~0600UT and has been turbulent from 1600UT. 
This was associated with some moderate (+/-5nT)fluctuations in 
IMF Bz. There was a brief excursion to -8nT ~0600UT. This activity 
is likely related to the arrival of a weak coronal high speed 
stream, as predicted. Solar wind speeds are expected to stay 
nominal from October 23 till 25.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11320122
      Cocos Island         4   12220121
      Darwin               7   22321122
      Townsville           7   22321113
      Learmonth            6   12320122
      Alice Springs        5   11320112
      Culgoora             5   11320122
      Camden               5   11320122
      Canberra             4   11320012
      Launceston           5   11320122
      Hobart               5   11320112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
      Casey               10   23431122
      Mawson              10   11221125

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Oct     7    Quiet
25 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet at all latitudes 
with a brief Unsettled period around 0800UT likely related to 
the arrival of a weak coronal high speed stream. Mostly Quiet 
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours unless extended 
IMF Bz southwards continues for several hours and then may reach 
Unsettled levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days with a chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Oct   111

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      68
Oct      72
Nov      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Oct   100    About 20% above predicted monthly values
24 Oct   100    About 20% above predicted monthly values
25 Oct   100    About 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions are currently enhanced due to high levels 
of ionising EUV flux from multiple sunspot regions. Similar ionospheric 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with a chance of 
SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 296 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    19300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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