[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 21 Oct 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 22 10:30:22 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Oct             23 Oct             24 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only 
a few low C-class flares from regions 1875(N07E32) and 1877(S13E55). 
These two regions are the most complex regions currently on the 
sun, have a beta-gamma-delta magnetic class and may produce M 
class X-ray flares over the forecast period. No likely geo-effective 
CMEs observed in the available STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery. 
The solar wind speed remained in the light (~300km/s) range and 
Bz fluctuated around neutral during 21 October. Elevated solar 
wind speeds are expected to sweep past Earth 22-23 October. The 
enhancement is not expected to be especially strong.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100101
      Cocos Island         1   01100100
      Darwin               2   21100102
      Townsville           2   21000111
      Learmonth            2   12100102
      Alice Springs        1   11000101
      Culgoora             1   11000010
      Camden               1   11000011
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Launceston           1   11100101
      Hobart               1   01100101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
      Casey                6   13320201
      Mawson               2   12101100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0000 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region 
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase 
slightly during the next 24 hours under the influence of an expected 
weak coronal hole high speed stream, leading to Unsettled geomagnetic 
conditions during the next 48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days with a chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Oct   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      68
Oct      72
Nov      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Oct    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Oct    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Oct    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions are currently enhanced due to high levels 
of ionising EUV flux from multiple sunspot regions. Geomagnetic 
activity over the next two days may reduce the maximum useable 
frequency, however conditions are not expected to drop significantly 
below the forecast monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 316 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    30000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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