[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 13 issued 2331 UT on 23 Jun 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 24 09:31:31 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.9    2056UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jun             25 Jun             26 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate for the UT day, 23 June. 
The largest flare was M2.9-class X-ray flare from active region 
(AR) 1778 (S16E61) at 23/2056UT. Expect Low to Moderate activity 
over the next 3 days. The solar wind ranged between 775 and 580 
km/s during the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF ranged 
between +7/-8nT. Expect the solar wind to slowly decrease over 
the UT day 24 June. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind 
at 0400UT on 23 Jun. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion 
enhancement event beginning 23/0820UT, which can be a precursor 
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. Most 
likely due to a glancing blow from a flare observed on 21 June 
0314UT from AR 1777.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   33331322
      Cocos Island         8   23321221
      Darwin              10   23331322
      Townsville          15   34332333
      Learmonth           14   34331323
      Alice Springs        9   23321322
      Norfolk Island       9   33321222
      Culgoora            11   33321323
      Camden              13   33332323
      Canberra             8   23321212
      Hobart              12   33331323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    25   35542522
      Casey               17   44332333
      Mawson              69   67443657

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun : 
      Darwin              13   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              19   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             14   4332 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jun    12    Unsettled
25 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled 
with isolated cases of Active levels in the Australian region 
during the UT day, 23 June. Periods of Active to Minor Storm 
levels were observed at high latitudes due to the elevated solar 
wind speed and weak shock. Expect the geomagnetic field to be 
Quiet to Unsettled for the next three days with isolated cases 
of Active to Minor Storm levels at higher latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 05 2013 1630UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jun    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jun    80    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Jun    80    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Jun    80    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were mostly normal in the Australian 
region during UT day, 23 June. Expect normal to minor enhancements 
in the Australian region due to an increase in sunspot activity 
(EUV levels) for the next three days. Proton event 10 MeV integral 
flux exceeded 10 PFU, expect possible minor impacts on HF radio 
in polar regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 587 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   303000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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