[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 23 09:30:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Low levels for the UT day, 22
June. The largest flare was from active region (AR) 1773 (N03W21)
at 22/1736UT. AR 1772 (S22W38) produced two C-class flares. Expect
Low activity over the next 3 days with a chance of an M-class
flare. SOHO LASCO C2 imagery showed a CME on the south west limb
at 1400 UT based on STEREO imagery not expected to be geo-effective.
The solar wind ranged between 600 to 700 km/s during the last
24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-7nT.
Expect the solar wind to remain elevated today 23 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 32332122
Cocos Island 8 22331122
Darwin 10 33332122
Townsville 12 33332232
Learmonth 9 23332122
Alice Springs 7 22331121
Norfolk Island 8 32331121
Culgoora 9 32332221
Camden 9 22332222
Canberra 7 22331121
Hobart 11 32342221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jun :
Macquarie Island 21 32363242
Casey 13 43332232
Mawson 38 55543364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 19 4443 2243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled
in the Australian region during the UT day, 22 June with isolated
cases of Active to Minor Storm levels at high latitudes due to
the elevated solar wind speed. Expect the geomagnetic field to
be Quiet to Unsettled for the next three days with isolated cases
of active levels at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Jun 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Jun 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were normal to enhanced in the
Australian region due to an increase in sunspot activity (EUV
levels). Expect these conditions to prevail for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 487 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 209000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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