[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jun 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 21 09:30:18 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jun             22 Jun             23 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: At least 4 weak C class and 4 strong B class X ray flares 
have occurred during the previous 24 hours. The strongest flare 
was a C1.9 event with maximum at 09:20 UT from AR 1777 located 
near the south east limb. AR 1775 has produced two weak C class 
flares and AR 1776 has been crackling with strong B class flares. 
AR 1762 (S28) which previously produced a M class flare is due 
to return today. Some of the active regions are rotating through 
the geoeffective zone and a significant M class flare is possible 
during the next 48 hours. STEREO A and B coronagraphs show the 
launch of a strong CME at 13 UT. SOHO LASCO C2 images show the 
CME expanding toward the south east (as viewed from Earth). This 
CME will not be geoeffective. A large coronal hole (CH 573) located 
in the northern hemisphere is traversing the central meridian. 
The solar wind was disturbed on June 19 and the subsequent high 
speed solar wind stream has arrived at Earth. During June 20 
the solar wind speed increased from about 300 km/s at 01 UT to 
about 500 km/s at 22 UT. The solar wind density is elevated at 
10 p/cc. IMF Bz has been fluctuating in the range -10 nT to +10 
nT. The high speed solar wind stream will continue to effect 
Earth during the next 2-3 days.

Region 1762 (S28) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due 
to return around 21 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21122222
      Cocos Island         6   21221222
      Darwin               7   12221232
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            9   22232232
      Norfolk Island       5   22121121
      Culgoora             5   11122222
      Camden               5   21122221
      Canberra             3   11011121
      Hobart               5   11112231    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     5   11212221
      Casey                7   12221232
      Mawson              21   44332254
      Davis               12   2333233-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1201 1113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jun    20    Active
22 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active
23 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during June 20, though 
more active than during previous days. A high speed solar wind 
stream has arrived at Earth and geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be active during June 21. A minor geomagnetic storm may occur 
and mostly affect high latitude regions south of Hobart.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 05 2013 1630UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation was near to 15% 
above monthly predicted values during June 20. The 10.7 cm solar 
flux is forecast to continue to increase during the next 2-3 
days and the outlook is for enhanced ionospheric support. However, 
a high speed solar wind stream has arrived at Earth and a minor 
geomagnetic storm may occur. There is a small chance of negative 
storm effects depressing ionospheric support during the next 
48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jun    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      5% to 20% above predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      10% to 30% above predicted monthly values during local day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      10 to 20% above predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      10 to 20% above predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jun    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Jun    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Jun    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation was near to 15% 
above monthly predicted values during June 20. The 10.7 cm solar 
flux is forecast to continue to increase during the next 2-3 
days and the outlook is for enhanced ionospheric support. However, 
a high speed solar wind stream has arrived at Earth and a minor 
geomagnetic storm may occur. There is a small chance of negative 
storm effects depressing ionospheric support during the next 
48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 299 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    44500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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