[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jun 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 20 09:30:16 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jun             21 Jun             22 Jun
Activity     Low                Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             135/89

COMMENT: The largest solar flare of June 19 was a C8.4 flare 
with maximum output at 09:54 UT. This event was from an active 
region located behind the south east limb. AR 1776 produced three 
C class flares, including a C3.5 flare, during June 19. AR 1773 
produced the remaining C1.5 flare. The impressive AR 1775 has 
been stable. AR 1776 is approaching the geoeffective sweet spot. 
The large coronal hole located in the northern hemisphere is 
traversing the central meridian. SOHO LASCO C2 images show a 
succession of CMEs leaving the south west limb commencing at 
01 UT on June 19. These CMEs were from an erupting prominence 
and are not Earthward pointing. The solar wind speed has been 
light but is presently rising toward 320 km/s. The solar wind 
density has been about 1-2 p/cc but is presently rising above 
10 p/cc. The Bz southward excursions of June 18 ended at about 
01 UT on June 19. Bz was predominantly northward during the first 
half of June 19 and then started trending southward again during 
the second half of the UT day. Bz is presently about -7 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100111
      Cocos Island         2   10111111
      Darwin               3   11110112
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            2   11010021
      Norfolk Island       1   11000001
      Culgoora             2   11100111
      Camden               1   11000111
      Canberra             0   00000010
      Hobart               0   00000110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                4   12111121
      Mawson              16   42100163
      Davis                6   22211132

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              4   1210 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jun     6    Quiet
21 Jun    12    Unsettled
22 Jun    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet during June 19. Solar 
wind disturbances associated with a CME occurring on June 18 
may increase geomagnetic activity during the next 48 hours. Fast 
solar wind from the large coronal hole located in the northern 
hemisphere may also increase geomagnetic activity during the 
next 48 hours.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to 
remain near monthly predicted values. The 10.7 cm solar flux 
was 123 on June 19 but may increase further as the next major 
solar active region continues to rotate around the south east 
limb. This may lead to a small increase in ionospheric support 
for higher frequencies.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jun    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to 
remain near monthly predicted values. The 10.7 cm solar flux 
was 123 on June 19 but may increase further as the next major 
solar active region continues to rotate around the south east 
limb. This may lead to a small increase in ionospheric support 
for higher frequencies.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 284 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    36600 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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