[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jun 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 18 09:30:17 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jun             19 Jun             20 Jun
Activity     Low                Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: There is a cluster of active regions mostly located 
in the south east quadrant (AR 1769-1775). AR 1772 produced the 
largest flare of June 17, a C1.7 flare with maximum at 08:12 
UT. During the early UT day of June 17, AR 1775 produced two 
minor C class flares. AR 1775 is developing in complexity and 
may produce an M class flare in comming days. Another C class 
flare is in progress at the time of this report. A large coronal 
hole is located in the northern hemisphere and is approaching 
the central meridian. SOHO LASCO C2 images show multiple CMEs 
leaving the Sun throughout late June 16 and June 17. By 01 UT 
on June 17, a succession of earlier CMEs form a partial halo 
towards the east, west and south. The solar wind speed was very 
light during June 17, declining from about 340 km/s to 280 km/s 
and fluctuating rapidly. The solar wind density is presently 
about 1-2 p/cc. Bz has mostly been in the range -3 nT to +3 nT. 
The solar wind density and speed are expected to increase late 
today.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Cocos Island         3   11-30011
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           5   12221112
      Learmonth            1   11010000
      Norfolk Island       0   01100000
      Culgoora             2   11101011
      Camden               1   11110001
      Canberra             0   00100000
      Hobart               2   11201000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   00201000
      Casey                3   21111111
      Mawson              11   24210015
      Davis                6   12221123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1000 0121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jun     6    Quiet
19 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet during June 17 and is 
expected to remain quiet for most of today, becoming unsettled 
late today and tomorrow. Coronal hole effects may lead to active 
geomagnetic conditions later in the week.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 05 2013 1630UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to 
remain near to monthly predicted values. The 10.7 cm solar flux 
has increased to 124 and is still trending upwards. This may 
lead to a small increase in ionospheric support for higher frequencies.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jun    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to 
remain near to monthly predicted values. The 10.7 cm solar flux 
has increased to 124 and is still trending upwards. This may 
lead to a small increase in ionospheric support for higher frequencies.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    35300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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