[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 17 09:30:19 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: The strongest solar flare occurring during June 16 was
a C1.0 class flare peaking at 10:26 UT from AR 1769. Six B class
solar flares occurred during June 16. Weak C class flares have
been occurring at a rate of about 1 per day during the previous
3 days. More B class and weak C class flares are probable. There
is a very small chance of an M class or greater flare today.
SOHO LASCO C2 images show a non-halo CME leaving the south west
limb at about 02 UT and another non-halo CME leaving the south
east limb at about 14 UT. These CMEs are not Earthward pointing.
The solar wind speed has been fluctuating between 320 and 350
km/s and the solar wind density has been in the range 1-3 /cm^3.
Bz was mostly northward in the range 0-3 nT during June 16 but
is presently about -3 nT. The solar wind density and speed are
expected to increase during June 17-18.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 10110---
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 4 1221111-
Learmonth 0 10010000
Norfolk Island 0 00000000
Culgoora 1 11100011
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
Casey 3 1111111-
Mawson 1 2000000-
Davis 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 5 Quiet
18 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet during June 14 and 15
and very quiet on June 16 because of weak IMF Bz northward conditions.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain quiet again today,
June 17. However, conditions are expected to become unsettled
during late today and tomorrow when the next solar wind sector
boundary crossing impacts Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to
remain near to monthly predicted values. The 10.7 cm solar flux
has begun trending upwards due to a group of solar active regions
in the south east quadrant of the Sun. This may lead to a small
increase in ionospheric support for higher frequencies.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to
remain near to monthly predicted values. The 10.7 cm solar flux
has begun trending upwards due to a group of solar active regions
in the south east quadrant of the Sun. This may lead to a small
increase in ionospheric support for higher frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 46200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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