[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 14 09:30:23 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Very Low levels and is expected
to remain Very Low for the next 3 days, although there is a slight
chance for C-class flares from active regions 1768(S11W42) and
1770(S19E68). Solar wind ranged between 440 to 350 km/s over
the last 24 hours with the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component
ranging between +/-3 nT. SOHO LASCO C2 imagery showed CMEs at
beginning at 13/0424UT to the south and 13/1348UT to the west.
STEREO images indicate the former CME is on the farside and will
not be geoeffective. However, the CME on the west limb is associated
with an eruptive prominence and has a slight chance of producing
a glancing blow toward the Earth in 3 or 4 days time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 1 11110100
Darwin 2 --100111
Townsville 2 11110101
Learmonth 1 11010000
Norfolk Island 1 11000010
Culgoora 1 11110001
Camden 0 11000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 22211111
Mawson 7 43010112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1111 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 4 Quiet
15 Jun 4 Quiet
16 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet magnetic conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor depressions possible over the next few days in
the north Australian region due to low solar EUV levels related
to a low number of active regions, otherwise expect near predicted
monthly MUF values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 85900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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