[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jun 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 13 09:30:17 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jun             14 Jun             15 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity is at Very Low levels and is expected 
to remain Very Low for the next 3 days, although there is a slight 
chance for a C-class flare from an emerging flux region at S11W18. 
Solar wind decreased from 450 to 400 km/s over the last 24 hours 
with the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranging between 
+/-4 nT. SOHO LASCO imagery showed plasma ejections from the 
Sun to the north beginning at 0236UT and to the south beginning 
at 0500UT and 0912UT. STEREO images indicate these coronal ejections 
will not be geoeffective.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Cocos Island         1   11111000
      Darwin               2   1210100-
      Townsville           3   12111111
      Learmonth            2   12110000
      Norfolk Island       1   11100000
      Culgoora             2   21110011
      Camden               2   12100001
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               1   11100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00200000
      Casey                5   23211111
      Mawson              10   33322004

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1001 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jun     4    Quiet
14 Jun     4    Quiet
15 Jun     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet magnetic conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jun    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jun    60    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun    60    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor depressions possible over the next few days in 
the north Australian region due to low solar EUV levels related 
to a low number of active regions, otherwise expect near predicted 
monthly MUF values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    86100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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