[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 11 09:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with with one C-class
flare from active region 1765 (N08W50) noted during the UT day.
This region has a chance of producing C class flares over the
next few days. Solar wind ranged between 340 and 410 km/s over
the last 24 hours with the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component
ranging between -/+8nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 8 23322221
Cocos Island 10 23322---
Darwin 8 23322221
Townsville 8 23322221
Learmonth 9 23422220
Norfolk Island 7 23322120
Culgoora 8 23322221
Camden 7 23322210
Canberra 5 12321110
Hobart 8 23322221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
Macquarie Island 13 13432---
Casey 9 23321---
Mawson 23 5543321-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1212 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 7 Quiet
12 Jun 5 Quiet
13 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet magnetic conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun 67 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 67 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 67 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 44600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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