[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jun 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 10 09:30:20 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jun             11 Jun             12 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels. Region 1765(N08W35) 
is the only region of note on the visible Sun and has a chance 
of producing C class flares over the next few days. Solar wind 
conditions are ambient.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12222321
      Cocos Island         5   122-----
      Darwin               8   12223321
      Townsville           8   22322---
      Learmonth            8   22223---
      Alice Springs        6   21222---
      Norfolk Island       5   12221221
      Culgoora             5   11222221
      Gingin               6   11213---
      Camden               7   12222321
      Canberra             3   01122210
      Hobart               7   12123320    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    13   11035---
      Casey                8   22322---
      Mawson               8   22223---

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun : 
      Darwin              13   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   3333 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jun     7    Quiet
12 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet magnetic conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jun    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    36700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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