[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 13 issued 2352 UT on 01 Jun 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 2 09:52:38 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN    ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jun             03 Jun             04 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Only B-class solar flare activity was observed during 
1 June. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during 1 June. Solar 
activity is expected to be predominantly Very Low to Low with 
the small chance of low level M-class flares. The Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field (IMF) turned strongly southward at 0010UT on 1 
June and remained so for several hours. Solar wind speeds increased 
slowly during 1 June peaking above 700 km/s towards the middle 
of the UT day. This activity is likely due to a co-rotating interaction 
region (CIR) and the associated coronal hole high speed wind 
stream. Solar wind speeds are expected to decline slowly over 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Active to Minor 
storm declining to Quiet towards the end of the UT day. Major 
to Severe storm periods were observed at higher latitude stations

Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      23   44544322
      Cocos Island        19   44444222
      Darwin              21   44543322
      Townsville          25   45544322
      Learmonth           27   54554222
      Alice Springs       25   45544322
      Norfolk Island      19   -4533322
      Culgoora            29   45644322
      Gingin              25   54544322
      Camden              28   35644322
      Canberra            24   34644221
      Hobart              26   35-55322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    75   36867432
      Casey               19   54432223
      Mawson              97   68854365
      Davis               27   4-------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        33
           Planetary             50                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   1001 1343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jun    12    Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with the chance of 
                Active periods
03 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jun     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was more significant than forecast. 
This was due to a sustained period of strong southward IMF. Major 
to Severe storms levels were observed at higher latitude stations 
with reports of Aurora sightings from Tasmania. Geomagnetic activity 
declined towards the end of the UT day and is expected to remain 
at mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels for the next few day as the 
IMF returns towards neutral levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Normal-poor    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Fair-normal    Poor-normal    Poor-normal
03 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected at times for 2 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jun    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 100% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values at times, otherwise
      the conditions were significantly degraded due to
      the increased geomagnetic activity.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
03 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
04 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days with isolated depressions at times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:34%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    21200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list