[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 13 issued 2352 UT on 01 Jun 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 2 09:52:38 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Only B-class solar flare activity was observed during
1 June. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during 1 June. Solar
activity is expected to be predominantly Very Low to Low with
the small chance of low level M-class flares. The Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) turned strongly southward at 0010UT on 1
June and remained so for several hours. Solar wind speeds increased
slowly during 1 June peaking above 700 km/s towards the middle
of the UT day. This activity is likely due to a co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) and the associated coronal hole high speed wind
stream. Solar wind speeds are expected to decline slowly over
the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Active to Minor
storm declining to Quiet towards the end of the UT day. Major
to Severe storm periods were observed at higher latitude stations
Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A K
Australian Region 23 44544322
Cocos Island 19 44444222
Darwin 21 44543322
Townsville 25 45544322
Learmonth 27 54554222
Alice Springs 25 45544322
Norfolk Island 19 -4533322
Culgoora 29 45644322
Gingin 25 54544322
Camden 28 35644322
Canberra 24 34644221
Hobart 26 35-55322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jun :
Macquarie Island 75 36867432
Casey 19 54432223
Mawson 97 68854365
Davis 27 4-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 33
Planetary 50
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 1001 1343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jun 12 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with the chance of
Active periods
03 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was more significant than forecast.
This was due to a sustained period of strong southward IMF. Major
to Severe storms levels were observed at higher latitude stations
with reports of Aurora sightings from Tasmania. Geomagnetic activity
declined towards the end of the UT day and is expected to remain
at mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels for the next few day as the
IMF returns towards neutral levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Fair-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
03 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected at times for 2 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jun 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 100% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values at times, otherwise
the conditions were significantly degraded due to
the increased geomagnetic activity.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
03 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
04 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days with isolated depressions at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:34%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 21200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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