[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 13 issued 2354 UT on 31 May 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 1 09:54:02 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*    ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    2000UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jun             02 Jun             03 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity reached moderate levels during 31 May 
due to an isolated M1-flare observed at 2000UT. Low level C-class 
flares were also observed during 31 May. Type II radio sweeps 
and CME activity were also observed in association with this 
flare activity, however, initial analysis of LASCO and STEREO 
satellite imagery suggests the CMEs are not Earth directed. Solar 
activity is expected to be predominantly Very Low to Low with 
the small chance of low level M-class flares. A weak shock was 
observed in the solar wind at 1529UT on 31 May, possibly due 
to the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) associated with the 
anticipated coronal hole high speed wind stream. Solar wind speeds 
have increased to 400 km/s following the shock and are expected 
to continue to increase during 1 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   01012222
      Cocos Island         3   101211--
      Darwin               6   11111332
      Townsville           8   1222233-
      Learmonth            5   01012322
      Alice Springs        3   1100222-
      Norfolk Island       3   01001222
      Culgoora             4   10102222
      Gingin               3   0001222-
      Camden               3   01002222
      Canberra             2   00001121
      Hobart               5   03002222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   0000111-
      Casey                6   2221222-
      Mawson               8   0230233-
      Davis               12   13412333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1000 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jun    16    Mostly Unsettled to Active with the chance of 
                Minor Storm periods at high latitudes
02 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jun     8    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 30 May and 
is current for 31 May to 1 Jun. A weak shock was observed in 
the solar wind at 1529UT on 31 May, possibly due to the co-rotating 
interaction region (CIR) associated with the anticipated coronal 
hole high speed wind stream. Some Unsettled periods were observed 
at high latitudes following the shock. Further Unsettled to Active 
periods are possible for all latitudes during 1 June with Minor 
Storm periods possible at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
02 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for 1 June 
with mildly degraded conditions possible later in the UT day 
of 1 June. More significantly degraded conditions are expected 
for 2 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 May    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jun    75    Mostly near predicted monthly values with depressions 
                possible during local night
02 Jun    55    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
03 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 16 was issued 
on 30 May and is current for 31 May to 1 Jun. Mostly normal HF 
conditions are expected for 1 June with isolated depressions 
at times, particularly later in the UT day. More significant 
depressions are possible for 2 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:38%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    46700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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