[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 13 issued 2354 UT on 31 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 1 09:54:02 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 2000UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity reached moderate levels during 31 May
due to an isolated M1-flare observed at 2000UT. Low level C-class
flares were also observed during 31 May. Type II radio sweeps
and CME activity were also observed in association with this
flare activity, however, initial analysis of LASCO and STEREO
satellite imagery suggests the CMEs are not Earth directed. Solar
activity is expected to be predominantly Very Low to Low with
the small chance of low level M-class flares. A weak shock was
observed in the solar wind at 1529UT on 31 May, possibly due
to the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) associated with the
anticipated coronal hole high speed wind stream. Solar wind speeds
have increased to 400 km/s following the shock and are expected
to continue to increase during 1 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 4 01012222
Cocos Island 3 101211--
Darwin 6 11111332
Townsville 8 1222233-
Learmonth 5 01012322
Alice Springs 3 1100222-
Norfolk Island 3 01001222
Culgoora 4 10102222
Gingin 3 0001222-
Camden 3 01002222
Canberra 2 00001121
Hobart 5 03002222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
Macquarie Island 1 0000111-
Casey 6 2221222-
Mawson 8 0230233-
Davis 12 13412333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 16 Mostly Unsettled to Active with the chance of
Minor Storm periods at high latitudes
02 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jun 8 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 30 May and
is current for 31 May to 1 Jun. A weak shock was observed in
the solar wind at 1529UT on 31 May, possibly due to the co-rotating
interaction region (CIR) associated with the anticipated coronal
hole high speed wind stream. Some Unsettled periods were observed
at high latitudes following the shock. Further Unsettled to Active
periods are possible for all latitudes during 1 June with Minor
Storm periods possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for 1 June
with mildly degraded conditions possible later in the UT day
of 1 June. More significantly degraded conditions are expected
for 2 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 75 Mostly near predicted monthly values with depressions
possible during local night
02 Jun 55 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 16 was issued
on 30 May and is current for 31 May to 1 Jun. Mostly normal HF
conditions are expected for 1 June with isolated depressions
at times, particularly later in the UT day. More significant
depressions are possible for 2 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:38%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 46700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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