[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 13 issued 2354 UT on 01 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 2 10:54:12 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jan             03 Jan             04 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day with a single 
C1 flare from region 1640(N28W06). Expect Very Low to Low solar 
activity 02-Jan, with the chance of an isolated C-class flare. 
The solar wind declined steadily over the UT day to be near 300km/s 
at time of reporting.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Cocos Island         0   01010000
      Darwin               1   11000001
      Townsville           4   12211111
      Learmonth            2   21111001
      Norfolk Island       2   11000012
      Culgoora             0   10000001
      Gnangara             3   22111011
      Camden               2   10111011
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   11100010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                5   32211011
      Mawson               5   33011012
      Davis                6   22222112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jan     5    Quiet
03 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jan     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic activity has been Quiet and should remain Quiet 
for the next day. Some Unsettled periods may be expected on the 
3rd of Jan UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jan   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  83

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day and 
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    62000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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