[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 12 issued 2326 UT on 31 Dec 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 1 10:26:45 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jan             02 Jan             03 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Expect 
Very Low solar activity 01-Jan, with the chance of an isolated 
C-class flare. The solar wind declined steadily over the UT day 
to be near 350km/s at time of reporting. The IMF was stable. 
Expect quiet solar wind conditions over the next 48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21100112
      Cocos Island         1   11100001
      Darwin               2   11100012
      Townsville           5   21211122
      Learmonth            3   22110111
      Norfolk Island       1   11000111
      Culgoora             2   10100112
      Gnangara             3   21111111
      Camden               4   21111112
      Canberra             0   10000001
      Hobart               3   21100112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000001
      Casey                7   23321112
      Mawson               5   22211122
      Davis                6   22222122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1001 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jan     5    Quiet
02 Jan     5    Quiet
03 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed 31-Dec and are 
expected for the next two days (01-02 Jan). Unsettled conditions 
may be observed day 3 of the forecast period (03-Jan).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Dec    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jan    85    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jan    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day and 
are expected to be mostly normal for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    97800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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