[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 13 issued 2330 UT on 26 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 27 10:30:11 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 26-Feb. Two westward-directed
CMEs visible in SOHO LASCO and STEREO imagery over the period
were associated with activity around the west limb and are unlikely
to be geoeffective. Background solar X-ray flux remains at low
levels. Expect Very Low solar activity 27-Feb, with the chance
of isolated C-class flares. Solar wind speed declined to 300km/s
over the period. The Bz component of the IMF maintained a mild
(-2nT to -5nT) negative bias over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 12122121
Darwin 6 12222122
Townsville 5 1222221-
Learmonth 8 22222232
Alice Springs 4 1222210-
Norfolk Island 5 31112121
Gingin 5 2212221-
Camden 5 12113121
Canberra 3 01112021
Hobart 5 12113121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 0201420-
Casey 8 2333210-
Mawson 9 2322232-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 5 Quiet
28 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed at all latitudes
over the UT day Feb 26. Solar wind parameters remain at nominal
levels. Expect generally Quiet conditions next two days (27-28
Feb), with some Unsettled conditions from late on day 2 (28-Feb)
into day 3 (01-Mar) due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
28 Feb 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
01 Mar 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs moderately depressed across S.Aus region Feb 26.
Moderate depressions observed after local dawn Feb 27 in the
S.Aus region. Expect similar conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 37600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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