[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 13 issued 2330 UT on 25 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 26 10:30:02 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 25-Feb, with a single long-duration
B8.9 X-ray flare from AR1678 around the west limb. The flare
was associated with a radio sweep and a westward-directed CME
observed in LASCO C3 imagery. SOHO LASCO and STEREO imagery shows
most of the mass directed to the West, so the event is unlikely
to be geoeffective. Background solar X-ray flux remains at low
levels. Solar wind speed remains near 350km/s at the time of
report issue.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 5 11111123
Townsville 6 12212222
Learmonth 6 12122222
Alice Springs 3 11111112
Norfolk Island 3 11111111
Gingin 4 11111122
Camden 3 11111112
Canberra 0 00000002
Hobart 2 00011102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 00001002
Casey 8 23331112
Mawson 6 22112113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Feb 5 Quiet
27 Feb 5 Quiet
28 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed at all latitudes
over the UT day Feb 25. Solar wind parameters remain at nominal
levels. Expect generally Quiet conditions next three days (26-28
Feb), with some Unsettled conditions possible late on day 3 (28-Feb).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Feb 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Feb 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
27 Feb 45 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
28 Feb 45 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs moderately depressed across most of the region
Feb 25, particularly in S.Aus over the local day. Widespread
moderate depressions observed after local dawn Feb 26. Expect
similar conditions next three days with possible deepening depressions
as solar EUV radiation declines.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 24500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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