[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 13 issued 2333 UT on 02 Feb 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 3 10:33:55 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Feb             04 Feb             05 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
a C1 flare from region 1665 (N12E23) and a C2 flare from region 
1667 (N21E61). Solar activity is expected to be very low to low 
over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed rose from ~400 km/s 
to ~500 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated mostly between 
between +/-8 nT until 12UT and since then between +/-5 nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   23332222
      Cocos Island         5   22221121
      Darwin               8   23222222
      Townsville           9   23322222
      Learmonth           13   33333232
      Alice Springs       10   23332222
      Norfolk Island       9   23332121
      Gnangara             -   --------
      Camden               9   23332122
      Canberra            10   23332222
      Hobart              14   24432232    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    14   23344311
      Casey               28   45643232
      Mawson              36   46533363

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1001 1202     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active
04 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were 
observed over the Australian region during the last 24 hours, 
with some active periods in southern Australia and activity reaching 
storm levels at times in the Antarctic region. Conditions are 
currently returning to quiet levels across Australia but are 
likely to become unsettled to active later on 3-Feb due to the 
31-Jan CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 4-5 
Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Feb    87

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values
04 Feb    55    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Feb    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values to slightly 
enhanced over the last 24 hours. Increased geomagnetic activity 
is likely to result in mild MUF depressions on 3-4 Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    55700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list