[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 13 issued 2329 UT on 01 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 2 10:29:57 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low over the next
3 days. The solar wind speed was steady at ~350 km/s for most
of the UT day, rising over the last 2 hours to ~400 km/s. The
IMF Bz component fluctuated between +/-5 nT to 15UT and since
then mostly between +/-8 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Mostly quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 21111212
Cocos Island 2 10111102
Darwin 7 22221213
Townsville 8 22212133
Learmonth 5 2212121-
Alice Springs 4 2211120-
Norfolk Island 4 21111122
Canberra 3 11111111
Hobart 4 11211212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
Macquarie Island 4 10132101
Casey 11 33432211
Mawson 8 33222202
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 127 (Severe storm)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over
the Australian region during the last 24 hours. Some unsettled
to active periods in the Antarctic region. Currently unsettled
in northern Australia. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
on 2-Feb. A glancing blow from a CME could result in some active
periods on 3-Feb, with quiet to unsettled conditions on 4-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
03 Feb 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values over
the last 24 hours. Significant MUF enhancements observed in Cocus
Island region from 06-14UT. Increased geomagnetic activity is
likely to result in MUF depressions on 3-4 Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 20600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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