[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 13 issued 2359 UT on 26 Dec 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 27 10:59:10 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Dec             28 Dec             29 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             130/84

COMMENT: Mostly Low solar activity is expected for 27 December 
with the small chance of moderate levels. Solar wind speeds were 
predominantly below 300 km/s during 26 December with the IMF 
Bz fluctuating between +5 and -5 nT. A halo CME was observed 
in both LASCO and STEREO-B satellite imagery around 03UT on 26 
December but does not appear to be associated with any front 
side events and is therefore considered to be a backside event 
and not geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112101
      Darwin               4   21112112
      Townsville           3   11112111
      Learmonth            3   21112101
      Alice Springs        2   10002101
      Culgoora             3   11112111
      Gingin               3   20112101
      Camden               3   11112111
      Canberra             0   00101000
      Launceston           3   11212101
      Hobart               3   11212101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     3   11222100
      Casey               11   44321112
      Mawson               5   23212101
      Davis                4   --222101

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2013 3210     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Dec     5    Quiet
28 Dec     5    Quiet
29 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Predominantly Quiet levels are expected for the next 
few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Dec   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      117
Dec      73
Jan      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Dec   120    Mostly near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Dec   140    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Dec   140    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 296 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    28100 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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