[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 25 Dec 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 26 10:30:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Mostly Low solar activity is expected for 26 December
with the small chance of moderate levels. Solar wind speeds became
slightly elevated during 25 December peaking around 340 km/s.
A sustained period of southward IMF was observed between 05-15UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 13223211
Darwin 8 23223211
Townsville 8 13223221
Learmonth 8 22124211
Alice Springs 6 12223211
Culgoora 7 12-23221
Gingin 7 22123311
Camden 8 13223221
Canberra 6 12223210
Launceston 9 13333211
Hobart 7 13223211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
Macquarie Island 14 11345320
Casey 16 44433221
Mawson 17 43234431
Davis 11 23433210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec 6 Quiet
28 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Some unsettled to active levels were observed during
25 December with an isolated Minor storm period at high latitudes
as the result of sustained southward IMF. Mostly Unsettled to
Quiet levels are expected for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed over the last 24 hours with some
depressions at high latitudes late in the UT day. Some depressions
are expected for mid-high latitudes for 26 Dec, otherwise mostly
normal to enhanced conditions are expected for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec 159
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Depressions following local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with some depressions
late in the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec 100 Isolated depressions at times for southern regions,
otherwise mostly normal to enhanced
27 Dec 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Australasian region over
the last 24 hours, with some isolated depressions for southern
regions following dawn. Depressions are likely to continue for
southern regions at times, with mostly enhanced conditions otherwise.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 289 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 50100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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