[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 13 issued 2342 UT on 23 Dec 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 24 10:42:05 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 22/2208UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.3 0003UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.6 0906UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
three M class flares and several C-class flares, mainly from
AR1928 and some from AR1934. AR1928 is approaching the limb and
rotating out of geoeffective position for CMEs and AR1934 is
a few days from geoeffective position. Solar wind speed remained
in the 300-350 km/s range over the UT day today so it's predicted
rise from a high-speed solar-wind stream due to an extensive
northern coronal hole is later than expected. Over 24-25th Dec
solar wind speed should rise to ~500km/s. The Bz north-south
component of IMF was in the quiescent +/-5 nT during the UT day
so no significant merging with the geomagnetic field. Solar activity
is expected to stay at Low to Moderate levels for the next three
days with the possibility of M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11000011
Darwin 2 21110011
Townsville 1 11000011
Learmonth 1 11001000
Alice Springs 0 10000001
Culgoora 2 211001-1
Gingin 1 20100010
Camden 1 11000011
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 2 11101012
Hobart 1 10001011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 8 24311121
Mawson 10 32113124
Davis 8 22223113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 12 Unsettled
25 Dec 12 Unsettled
26 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet levels over the
last 24 hours. The onset of Unsettled conditions from a high-speed
solar-wind stream from an extensive coronal hole in the northern
solar hemisphere is later than predicted but should occur over
24-25 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 142
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Dec 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Australasian region over
the last 24 hours. Sporadic E-layers at several locations with
blanketing periods of ~1 hour. Normal to enhanced ionospheric
support expected to continue for the Australasian region for
the next 3 days with enhanced MUF's of approx 15%. Geomagnetic
activity will gradually increase to Unsettled levels over 24-25
Dec due to a high-speed solar-wind stream and this will probably
cause more variability in MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 26700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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