[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 13 issued 2333 UT on 23 Dec 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 24 10:33:50 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6 22/2208UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.3    0003UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.6    0906UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Dec             25 Dec             26 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with several 
C-class flares, mainly from AR1928 and one from AR1934 but both 
still have potential for M class flares. AR1928 is approaching 
the limb and rotating out of geoeffective position for CMEs and 
AR1934 is a few days from geoeffective position. Solar wind speed 
remained in the 350-300 km/s range over the UT day today so it's 
predicted rise. from a high-speed solar-wind stream from an extensive 
northern coronal hole is later than expected. Over 24-25th Dec 
solar wind speed should rise to ~500km/s. The Bz north-south 
component of IMF was in the quiescent +/-5 nT during the UT day 
so no significant merging with the geomagnetic field. Solar activity 
is expected to stay at Low to Moderate levels for the next three 
days with the possibility of M-class activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000011
      Darwin               2   21110011
      Townsville           1   11000011
      Learmonth            1   11001000
      Alice Springs        0   10000001
      Culgoora             2   211001-1
      Gingin               1   20100010
      Camden               1   11000011
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Launceston           2   11101012
      Hobart               1   10001011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                8   24311121
      Mawson              10   32113124
      Davis                8   22223113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Dec    12    Unsettled
25 Dec    12    Unsettled
26 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet levels over the 
last 24 hours. The onset of Unsettled conditions from a high-speed 
solar-wind stream from an extensive coronal hole in the northern 
solar hemisphere is later than predicted but should occur over 
24-25 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Dec   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      117
Dec      73
Jan      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Dec   140    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Dec   140    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Dec   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Australasian region over 
the last 24 hours. Sporadic E-layers at several locations with 
blanketing periods of ~1 hour. Normal to enhanced ionospheric 
support expected to continue for the Australasian region for 
the next 3 days with enhanced MUF's of approx 15%. Geomagnetic 
activity will gradually increase to Unsettled levels over 24-25 
Dec due to a high-speed solar-wind stream and this will probably 
cause more variability in MUFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 335 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    26700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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