[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Dec 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 21 10:30:25 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M3/-- 19/2319UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Dec             22 Dec             23 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with 
two M-class and several C-class flares. The largest flare of 
this period, an M3 event was observed at 2319UT/19 December from 
a new region (S15E65). Due to the late time of occurrence this 
flare could not be included in yesterday's report. This region 
also produced an M1.6 flare at 1157UT/ 20 December. Solar wind 
speed was 350-370 km/s during most parts of the UT day today. 
The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5 nT during this period, 
staying south for extended periods during the second half of 
the UT day. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels 
for the next three days with the possibility of M-class activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Mostly quiet 
to unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22110111
      Darwin               4   22110112
      Townsville           3   22000112
      Learmonth            4   32010111
      Alice Springs        2   22000111
      Culgoora             3   22110111
      Gingin               4   32100111
      Camden               3   22110111
      Canberra             2   22000110
      Launceston           6   33111211
      Hobart               4   23110111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   12010100
      Casey               15   25432222
      Mawson              23   45213354
      Davis               14   34222342

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1100 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Dec     4    Quiet
22 Dec     4    Quiet
23 Dec     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet to unsettled 
levels over the last 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions may be 
expected for the next three days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed on most locations over the last 
24 hours with periods of presence of sporadic E-layers at several 
locations. Normal to enhanced ionospheric support expected to 
continue for the next 3 days with enhanced MUF's of approx 20%.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Dec   121

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      117
Dec      73
Jan      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Dec   130    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
22 Dec   130    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
23 Dec   130    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Australasian region over 
the last 24 hours with the presence of sporadic E-layers at several 
locations. Normal to enhanced ionospheric support expected to 
continue for Australian and NZ regions for the next 3 days with 
enhanced MUF's of approx 20%.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.6E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    45700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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