[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 19 Dec 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 20 10:30:27 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.5 2320UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only
C-class X-ray activities. Today's largest flare was a C2.2 at
1535UT from region 1928(S16W19). Solar wind speed was 350-380km/s
during most parts of the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF
varied between +/-5 nT during this period. Currently there are
9 numbered sunspots on the visible solar disk. Solar activity
is expected to stay at low levels for the next three days with
some possibility of isolated M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 21101222
Darwin 4 -1101222
Townsville 4 21101222
Learmonth 6 22101223
Alice Springs 4 21100222
Culgoora 4 22-01221
Gingin 5 21101232
Camden 4 21101221
Canberra 2 11000220
Launceston 6 22102322
Hobart 4 22101221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 12001221
Casey 13 34422222
Mawson 16 33212444
Davis 14 33213442
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0111 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 4 Quiet
21 Dec 4 Quiet
22 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been quiet over the last 24
hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed on most locations over the last
24 hours. Normal to enhanced ionospheric support expected to
continue for the next 3 days with enhanced MUF's of approx 20%.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec 140 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
21 Dec 140 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
22 Dec 140 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Australasian region over
the last 24 hours. Normal to enhanced ionospheric support expected
to continue for Australian and NZ regions for the next 3 days
with enhanced MUF's of approx 20%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 35500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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