[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 13 issued 2329 UT on 16 Dec 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 17 10:29:50 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only
minor C-class x-ray flares, the largest a mid-C level at ~2130UT,
resulting in a limb CME. Solar wind speed was ~450km/s during
the day, and is expected to slowly trend towards quiescent 400km/sec
over the next day. IMF Bz,the north-south component of the solar
interplanetary magnetic field ranged in the neutral +/-5nT. Solar
activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next 3 days
with ~20% chance of M-class events, most likely from 1917 (S15W49)
and 1921 (N07W15) which are still growing.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 32211112
Darwin 8 33211113
Townsville 8 33221113
Learmonth 6 32221102
Alice Springs 6 32211112
Gingin 6 32211112
Camden 5 22211112
Canberra 4 22210012
Launceston 8 33221122
Hobart 5 22221112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
Macquarie Island 5 22222012
Casey 28 56532223
Mawson 13 34422222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1100 1301
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 6 Quiet
18 Dec 6 Quiet
19 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours
with an isolated Unsettled early in the UT day from tail end
of coronal hole and weak shock effects. Quiet conditions expected
for the next 24 hours with no inbound CMEs or high speed solar
wind from coronal holes. Solar wind plasma density predicted
to rise somewhat over next 48 hours, but not accompanied by significant
solar wind speed increase, so geomagnetic effect should be minimal.
Also predominantly Quiet conditions for 18Dec to 19Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec 149
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Dec 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Dec 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Australasian region over
the last 24 hours, particularly in near-equatorial northern regions
with an enhanced equatorial anomaly. Normal to enhanced ionospheric
support expected to continue for Australian and NZ regions for
the next 3 days with enhanced MUF's of approx 15% for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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