[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 13 issued 2345 UT on 15 Dec 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 16 10:45:46 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 156/110


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Dec             17 Dec             18 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            155/109

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only 
minor C-class events. Solar wind speed gradually declined from 
600km/s at 00UT to be ~450km/s at the time of this report, and 
is expected to continue falling at the same rate over the next 
24 hours. Bz,the north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (IMF) ranged between +7nT and -2nT over the UT 
day. Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next 3 days 
with only a slight chance of M-class events. There is currently 
7 numbered regions on disk of which only regions 1917 (S15W35) 
and 1921 (N07W00) have shown signs of growth in the last 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212211
      Darwin               5   22212-12
      Townsville           7   22213-21
      Learmonth            7   22213-12
      Alice Springs        6   22213-11
      Culgoora             0   00000000
      Gingin               6   21212321
      Camden               8   22213312
      Canberra             5   11202311
      Launceston           7   22313-11
      Hobart               9   22313-31    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     5   11223210
      Casey               23   45532333
      Mawson              14   43322422
      Davis               16   33433333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   3421 1342     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Dec     9    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Dec     6    Quiet
18 Dec     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the 
last 24 hours with an isolated Active period between 14UT and 
17UT at IPS low/mid latitude stations. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
expected for the next 24 hours. Quiet conditions for 17Dec to 
18Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 
hours with occasional depressed periods for mid to high latitudes. 
Normal HF conditions expected for the next 3 days with enhanced 
MUF's of ~15% for low to mid latitudes. Slight chance of short-wave 
fadeouts.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Dec    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      117
Dec      73
Jan      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Dec   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Dec   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Dec   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Australian and NZ regions 
over the last 24 hours with depressed conditions during local 
day for Southern AUS/NZ regions and notable sporadic E in Northern 
AUS regions. Normal to enhanced ionospheric support expected 
for Australian and NZ regions for the next 3 days with enhanced 
MUF's of approx 15% for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 396 km/sec  Density:    8.1 p/cc  Temp:   190000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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