[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 13 issued 2346 UT on 13 Dec 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 14 10:46:49 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
largest event being a C4.8 xray flare at 0315UT from region 1917
(S15E04). Yesterdays C5.9 xray flare at 2214UT was from region
1921 (N08E37). A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at
1207UT whereby Bz,the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) ranged between +/-2nT from 00UT till 12UT
upon which a step increase in solar wind speed from 285km/s to
335km/s while Bz swung predominantly north for the remainder
of the UT day, ranging from +8nT and -6nT. Solar wind speed is
expected to increase in the next 24 hours due to coronal hole
effects. Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next 3
days with small chance of M-class events while the 10cm flux
levels are expected to remain at elevated levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11003212
Darwin 5 11003222
Townsville 5 11003222
Learmonth 5 1100-322
Alice Springs 4 01003222
Culgoora 0 -0000000
Gingin 4 11003212
Camden 4 01103212
Canberra 3 10003111
Launceston 5 11103212
Hobart 5 11103212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 00001101
Casey 7 23212212
Mawson 4 21003211
Davis 5 12103211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
15 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Dec 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. In the IPS magnetometer data for 13 Dec, a weak (14nT)
impulse was observed at 1324UT. Unsettled to Active conditions
with possible Minor Storm periods is expected for 14Dec due to
the expected arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a
northern-hemisphere/equatorial positioned coronal hole. Unsettled
conditions expected for 15Dec and Quiet conditions for 16Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with MUF enhancements ~15% seen at low to high latitudes.
Chance of short-wave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Dec 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed across all Australian and NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Normal to enhanced ionospheric
support expected for Australian and NZ regions for the next 3
days due to strong ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm) levels. Possible
degraded conditions for Antarctic and Southern AUS/NZ regions
14Dec (during local night) should geomagnetic activity increase.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 26300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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