[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 02 Dec 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 3 10:30:22 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Two new regions, AR 11912 (S21 E69) and AR 11913 (S14
W60). Two, small C-class flares from AR 11913. All regions appear
stable. A small coronal hole will cross central meridian 3 Dec.
Three weak CME events in the latter half of the reporting period
with low probability of being geo-effective. ACE data show the
solar wind speed declining from ~470 to 400 km/s with the IMF
undisturbed. AR 11909 (S17 E06) is most likely to produce an
M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 0 10000001
Darwin 2 21110011
Townsville 0 10000001
Learmonth 1 20000001
Alice Springs 0 10000000
Culgoora 0 10000000
Gingin 1 20000001
Camden 1 11000010
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 2 21101001
Hobart 1 21000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 9 33322112
Mawson 3 21111111
Davis 5 21212112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3331 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Dec 5 Quiet
05 Dec 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs, with respect to the predicted monthly
T index, are expected for southern hemisphere propagation paths.
MUFs on northern hemisphere propagation paths expected to be
near predicted to slightly lower than those based on predicted
monthly T index.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-25%
10-14, 17-18 UT. No Townsville data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressions to 25% 00-07 UT, then near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced. Some sporadic E
00-02 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Dec 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Dec 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic E may, at times, disrupt oblique propagation
paths. Low chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 490 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 50600 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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