[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 01 Dec 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 2 10:30:24 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours. Today's
largest event was a C1.4 flare that peaked at 1121UT. Solar wind
speed gradually decreased from 520 to 450 km/s during the last
24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
stayed mostly negative up to around -7nT until 0900UT and then
stayed positive up to around 9 nT during the rest of the UT day.
Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next three
days with some possibility of isolated M-class event. ACE EPAM
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
01/0725UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 33224202
Darwin 12 33224213
Townsville 9 23224202
Learmonth 11 33234202
Alice Springs 10 33224102
Culgoora 9 23224102
Gingin 9 33223202
Camden 7 23223102
Canberra 6 23213101
Launceston 11 34323202
Hobart 11 34323102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
Macquarie Island 6 23322001
Casey 40 67533213
Mawson 18 55323212
Davis 19 45523211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1112 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Dec 6 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to strengthening in the solar wind stream and periods
of negative Bz, geomagnetic conditions increased up to active
levels today. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with some
possibility of active periods may be expected 02 December. Quiet
to unsettled conditions on 03 December mostly quiet conditions
on 04 December may be expected. In the IPS magnetometer data
for 01 Dec, a weak (13nT) impulse was observed at 1310UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed during the
last 24 hours. Strong sporadic E-layers were observed on some
mid latitude locations during this period. Mostly normal
HF conditions may be expected for the next three days with
the possibility of minor MUF enhancements on 03 and 04 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Dec 115 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across Aus/NZ
region during the last 24 hours. Strong sporadic E-layers were
observed on some mid latitude locations during this period. In
Aus/NZ regions, mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for
the next three days with the possibility of minor MUF enhancements
on 03 and 04 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 105000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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