[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 13 issued 2341 UT on 24 Aug 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 25 09:41:41 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Aug             26 Aug             27 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Background solar X-ray flux has declined to nominal 
levels, with no significant X-ray activity observed over the 
UT day. A disappearing solar filament in the SW quadrant was 
reported 00-02UT. A narrow SW directed CME was observed in LASCO 
C3 imagery after 10UT. STEREO A imagery indicates this is directed 
mostly S of the Ecliptic. NSO/GONG H-alpha imagery shows a small 
W limb eruption at 0840UT as the probable source. A weak shock 
was detected in the solar wind at 23/2355UT, which is most likely 
the anticipated arrival of the Aug 20 CME. Following this event 
solar wind disturbance was minimal. Solar wind speed declined 
post-shock from 500 to 400 km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz component 
fluctuated +/-3nT and is neutral at the time of report issue. 
A minor Forbush Decrease was observed at Mawson Cosray Observatory 
at 24/05UT. This can be a precursor to CME arrival.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21122111
      Cocos Island         4   21122110
      Darwin               6   22222221
      Townsville           5   21122122
      Learmonth            4   21112220
      Alice Springs        5   22122111
      Norfolk Island       3   11122010
      Culgoora             4   11122111
      Gingin               5   21212211
      Camden               4   11122111
      Canberra             3   11122010
      Hobart               4   11132110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     6   11233110
      Casey               13   34422231
      Mawson              15   43233224
      Davis               18   43333225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug : 
      Darwin              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16   4333 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Aug    20    Active
26 Aug    12    Unsettled
27 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 23 August and 
is current for 24-26 Aug. Solar wind disturbances from a CME 
sequence Aug 20-21 have so far not eventuated. A weak shock, 
possibly from the first CME, was observed at 23/2355UT. Geomagnetic 
disturbance was minimal. The regional geomagnetic field was at 
Quiet to Unsettled levels at low to mid latitudes, with isolated 
Active periods at high levels. This present activity results 
from moderately elevated solar wind speed under the influence 
of a declining coronal hole wind stream. Further geomagnetic 
disturbance is anticipated day one with arrival of the second 
CME. Minor disturbance is expected to continue into day two due 
to a second favourably positioned equatorial coronal hole. Conditions 
should decline on day three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Some degradations to HF propagation in mid to high latitudes 
may be expected over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Aug    96

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% before local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Spread-F observed 10-17UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Darwin enhanced 20% local day, enhanced 30% local 
      evening, depressed 20% before local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mildly enhanced to near predicted monthly values 
      with periods of weak ionisation.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      70
Aug      72
Sep      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Aug    90    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
26 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced ionospheric conditions observed generally over 
the Equatorial/Aus regions. Continuing variability at times N 
Aus. Extended periods of disturbance Antarctic region. Expect 
mostly normal to enhanced conditions Equatorial/N Aus regions 
next three days. Periods of disturbance possible S Aus/Antarctic 
regions due to elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 493 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   129000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list