[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 23 Aug 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 24 09:30:24 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: A few minor C -class flares were observed over the UT
day Aug 23. A moderate-duration C1.9 level flare from AR 1820
(S12W61) peaking at 0030UT produced a SW-directed CME. STEREO
imagery indicates this is mostly directed South of the ecliptic
but a minor component may be Earth-directed. Solar wind speed
declined from 600 to less than 500 km/s by the time of report
issue. The CME impact anticipated during the mid part of the
UT day Aug 23 has so far not eventuated.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 23333321
Cocos Island 7 22322221
Darwin 12 23333322
Townsville 12 23333322
Learmonth 10 23332311
Alice Springs 10 22333312
Norfolk Island 9 23332211
Culgoora 12 23333322
Gingin 13 33333322
Camden 12 33333321
Canberra 8 22233211
Hobart 14 33343321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Aug :
Macquarie Island 26 44554411
Casey 13 34333222
Mawson 36 64333365
Davis 26 33434264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug :
Darwin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 3431 1243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Aug 20 Active. Chance minor storm periods.
25 Aug 20 Active
26 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: A CME impact expected during the mid part of the UT
day Aug 23 has not yet eventuated. The regional geomagnetic field
was Quiet to Unsettled, with Active to Minor Storm periods observed
at high latitudes. A late arrival of the Aug 20 CME is possible
day one, together with anticipated arrival of the Aug 21 CME.
Active to Minor Storm geomagnetic conditions are possible. Solar
wind parameters remain elevated due to a coronal hole now near
the solar West limb. A second small coronal hole is now past
solar central meridian and will become geoeffective by day two.
Expect continuing Unsettled conditions next three days with the
chance of Active to Minor Storm intervals days one and two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some degradations to HF propagation in mid to high latitudes
may be expected over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Aug 102
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25%.
Near predicted monthly values around local dawn.
Sporadic-E 15-18UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with extended periods of weak ionisation.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 70
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced ionospheric conditions observed generally over
the Equatorial/Aus regions. Continuing variability at times N
Aus. Extended periods of disturbance Antarctic region. Expect
mostly normal to enhanced conditions Equatorial/N Aus regions
next three days. Periods of disturbance possible S Aus/Antarctic
regions due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 523 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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