[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 13 issued 2341 UT on 21 Aug 2013

Thu Aug 22 09:41:18 EST 2013

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 130/84

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Aug             23 Aug             24 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: X-ray flare activity was low with a few minor C-class 
flares observed over the UT day. Disappearing solar filaments 
were reported at 0021 and 0304UT. A weak partial-halo CME was 
observed in LASCO C3 imagery after 06UT. STEREO imagery suggests 
this CME is directed north of, and in, the ecliptic but generally 
eastwards. It appears unlikely to be significantly geoeffective. 
Solar wind speed increased steadily over the UT day from 400 
to 500 km/s. The IMF Bz component sustained moderate Southward 
bias to -10nT from 01 to 04 UT, and maintained mild mostly Southward 
bias of about -5nT over the remainder of the UT day.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33233233
      Cocos Island        11   33-22233
      Darwin              18   44233343
      Townsville          17   34233343
      Learmonth           14   33233333
      Alice Springs       12   33223233
      Norfolk Island      12   33233232
      Culgoora            13   33233233
      Gingin              13   33233233
      Camden              12   23233233
      Canberra            11   23223233
      Hobart              14   23334233    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    17   13344423
      Casey               16   44332233
      Mawson              49   37423447
      Davis               17   34433323

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug : 
      Darwin              41   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              18   (Quiet)
      Canberra            33   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1000 0113     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
23 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
24 Aug    20    Active

COMMENT: Solar wind Bz component was at times moderately Southwards 
over the first half of the UT day, resulting in Unsettled conditions 
at low to mid latitudes, with Active intervals at high latitudes. 
Increasing solar wind speed combined with mild Southwards Bz 
resulted in Unsettled and occasionally Active conditions at all 
latitudes during the second half of the UT day. Solar wind speed 
remains moderately elevated at the time of report issue. Expect 
Unsettled to occasionally Active conditions days one and two. 
A mild CME impact is anticipated on day three which, combined 
with elevated background solar wind speed, could produce briefly 
Active to Minor Storm conditions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Some degradations to HF propagation in mid to high latitudes 
may be expected over the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Aug    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced to 50% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Briefly enhanced to 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mildly enhanced at times over the UT day but 
      with extended periods of weak ionosphere.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      70
Aug      72
Sep      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Aug    85    Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Normal to mildly enhanced conditions observed S 
Aus region. Periods of disturbance Antarctic region. Expect mostly 
normal to enhanced conditions Equatorial/Aus regions next three 
days. Periods of disturbance possible S Aus/Antarctic regions 
days two and three due to elevated geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    36600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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